A Novel Method for Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Gaussian Process
LEI Yu1,2,3,CAI Hong-bing1,2,ZHAO Dan-ning1,3
1.National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710600, China
2.Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710600, China
3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract：A novel method for satellite clock bias prediction incorporating phase space reconstruction and Gaussian process (GP) is proposed in this paper. Firstly a polynomial model is employed to fit the clock bias time series in terms of its characteristics, and then the noise of the polynomial fitting residual is reduced by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) algorithm. Secondly, phase space reconstruction is performed for the de-noised residual series according to its chaotic characteristics. Finally, Gaussian process is established so as to forecast the residual on the basis of reconstructed phase space, and then the predicted clock bias can be yielded by adding the trend term to the forecasted residual. The IGS ultra-rapid observed (IGU-O) product is used to set up a clock model, and short-term prediction experiments are carried out. The results have indicated that the proposed method outperforms the IGS ultra-rapid predicted (IGU-P) solutions at least on a daily basis.
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LEI Yu1,2,3,CAI Hong-bing 1,2,ZHAO Dan-ning 1,3. A Novel Method for Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Gaussian Process. Acta Metrologica Sinica, 2016, 37(3): 318-322.
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2016, Vol. 37 
