Abstract：In order to depress the wrong judging rate of the target hit probability during the ordnance test,a target hit probability estimation and judging method using Bayesian filtering theory is proposed.Through this method, the statistical mathematical model of target hit probability and experimental observation data is constructed. Then, based on Bayesian filtering theory, analytical expressions of posterior probability density function, posterior mean estimation and mean square error of hit probability are derived. We generate observation data based on different real target hit probabilities, and carry out estimation and decision experiments using traditional methods and the proposed methods respectively.The results show that the decision error rate of the proposed method is only 1/3 of that of the traditional method, which proves that the proposed method is feasible.
井沛良,段宇,蒋双双,高宏. 基于贝叶斯滤波理论的目标命中概率估计与判决方法研究[J]. 计量学报, 2024, 45(2): 300-304.
JING Peiliang,DUAN Yu,JIANG Shuangshuang,GAO Hong. The Research on Target Hit Probability Estimation and Judging Method Using Bayesian Filtering Theory. Acta Metrologica Sinica, 2024, 45(2): 300-304.
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