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| Study on Evaluation Method for Dynamic Uncertainty ofExplosion Temperature in Confined Space |
| ZHANG Long,ZHANG Ji-jun,ZHAO Jian-wei,ZHANG Bao-guo,ZHANG Dong-liang |
| Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710024, China |
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Abstract Combining the grey model GM (1,1) with the bootstrap method and the uncertainty evaluation theory, a grey bootstrap evaluation model GBM (1,1) for dynamic measurement uncertainty of the explosion temperature in confined space was constructed by. A 300s temperature data in an explosion test were selected as the analysis data. Parameters such as the estimated true value, the estimated interval, and the mean uncertainty were used to characterize the estimation results. The results of this study indicate that the GBM (1,1) model, which combines the strengths of the GM (1,1) grey model and bootstrap method, can accurately model the probability distribution of the dynamic measurement data and track the variation trends of the measured instantaneous values in real time. Compared with the grey model GM (1,1) and bootstrap method, the grey bootstrap model has higher truth estimation accuracy and interval estimation reliability. The estimated error distribution range is ［-12.62, 13.58］, the standard deviation is 8.69℃, and the maximum relative error is 1.2%. Its interval estimation reliability exceeded 90%, and the estimated intervals fully enveloped the dynamic fluctuation range of the measured quantity. It proves that the GBM (1,1) model can evaluate the dynamic measurement uncertainty of the explosion temperature in confined space.
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Received: 05 March 2019
Published: 29 June 2020
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2020, Vol. 41 
