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| Short-term Power Load Forecast Based on Big Data Reduction and PCA-improved RBF Network |
| ZHANG Shu-qing,REN Shuang,CHEN Rong-fei,QIAN Lei,JIANG Wan-lu,LI Pan |
| Institute of Electrical Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao, Hebei 066004, China |
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Abstract For big data feature of power load being more and more prominent, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) algorithm is introduced to solve the power load problem of big data by extracting features of high-dimensional data from power load and related weather factors. To avoid the adverse effect that the prediction accuracy of RBF neural network is affected severely, caused by that the autocorrelation of input space is too serious and the dimension of network is too high, the improved RBF neural network power load forecasting model is proposed based on principal component analysis. It eliminates the correlation among weather factors, excludes redundancy and extracts feature variables of multiple weather factors.The obtained weather characteristics are taken as the modeling objects of the RBF network together with the dates of historical load, which not only characterize fully the impact of weather factors on the power load, but also simplify the prediction model and accelerate the forecasting rate. Through the experiments of forecasting and analyzing to the actual power system load in a certain region of southern United States, it proved the validity and reliability of the method fully.
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Received: 01 July 2016
Published: 12 April 2018
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2018, Vol. 39 
