随着智能电能表的大规模使用,不再采用传统电能表的现场检测,而采取技术手段对电能表的可靠性及寿命进行科学预测将至关重要。针对智能电能表故障概率服从浴盆曲线的特点,提出了一种基于威布尔分布的智能电能表失效率及寿命预测方法,并利用极大似然法求解威布尔分布模型的形状参数和尺度参数。对国家电网计量生产调度平台(MDS)的智能电能表故障数据进行实例分析,并以平均寿命、额定寿命、中位寿命3种形式对智能电能表寿命进行评估,结果表明,该方法的预测精度较好,预测结果较为可靠,可以为智能电能表的性能评估及未来开展智能电能表的轮换工作提供理论依据。
Abstract
With the extensively use of the smart meter, it becomes necessary to predict the reliability and life of the smart meter instead of the traditional on-site inspection method. A prediction method of the failure rate and life of the smart meter based on Weibull distribution was proposed. The shape parameter and scale parameter of Weibull distribution were calculated through maximum likelihood estimation method. The proposal method was showed to be reliable by predicting the average life, rated life and median life based on the status from MDS system of State Grid Corporation. And the predicted results are possible to help the performance evaluation and rotation work of the smart meter in the future.
关键词
计量学 /
智能电能表 /
寿命预测 /
威布尔分布 /
极大似然法
Key words
metrology /
smart meter /
life prediction /
Weibull distribution /
maximum likelihood estimation
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基金
重庆市科学技术局技术创新与应用发展专项面上项目（cstc2019jscx-msxmX0051）;重庆市市场监督管理局科技项目(CQZJKY2019004);重庆市科研机构绩效激励引导专项（cstc2018jxjl140004）;国家电网公司科技项目（5220001600V1）
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